中文摘要：

分析了影响京津冀地区碳排放的因素,构建了京津冀地区低碳经济发展的系统动力学模型,以2017年碳排放量比2012年减少1.22亿吨为绝对量约束目标进行系统仿真,得到了可行性减排路径,即当2017年京津冀地区实现第一、二、三次产业固定资产投资比例为0.0285：0.2458：0.7257,单位GDP科技投入达到3.125%或者3.145%,生产中煤、石油、天然气、电力及新能源比例为0.5262：0.1759：0.0836：0.2143时或者0.5762：0.1759：0.0836：0.1643时,可完成2017年目标。

英文摘要：

This paper analyzes the influence factors of carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,and builds up the System Dynamics model on low carbon economy and simulated the system by the goal of carbon emissions in 2017 decreased by1. 22 million tons than 2012. Results show that,the goal of 2017 can＇t be reached by keeping the energy structure,industrial structure and science and technology investment unchanged. At last,it provids feasible path to reduce carbon emissions,that is,the goal of 2017 can be reached when proportions of fixed assets investment in the primary,secondary and tertiary industry are 0.0285： 0.2458： 0.7257,research investment of per unit GDP reaches 3.125%,proportions of coal,oil,gas,electricity and other new energies in production are 0.5262： 0.1759： 0.0836： 0.2143. Perhaps,the goal can also be achieved when proportions of fixed assets investment in the primary,secondary and tertiary industry are 0.0285： 0. 2458： 0.7257,research investment of per unit GDP reaches 3. 145%,proportions of coal,oil,gas,electricity and other new energies in production are 0.5762： 0.1759： 0.0836： 0.1643.