中文摘要：

梯级水库间存在复杂的水力联系，上游水库调度过程对下游水库的入库流量预报精度影响较大，特别是上游具有多个调节性能较差的水库时。针对上述问题，提出了考虑梯级蓄泄的水库预报入库流量修正方法，在退水阶段上游水库采用逐级蓄满模型，在非退水阶段采用基于相似度的情境识别方法，以达到根据上游水库蓄泄对下游水库预报入库流量进行修正的目的。福建水口水库的实例研究表明，该方法能够充分利用各种可获取的信息，有助于提高入库流量预报精度。

英文摘要：

For the downstream reservoir of a cascade system of complex hydraulic connections, its inflow is usually impacted by the operations of upstream reservoirs and the accuracy of inflow forecast is low, especially when many upstream reservoirs are poorly regulated. This paper describes an inflow correction method to consider the storing and releasing of cascaded reservoirs, using a model of one by one storing of upstream reservoirs at recession stage and a scenario recognition method based on similarity degree at non-recession stage. A case study of the Shuikou reservoir in Fujian province shows that by using the storing and releasing information this method can improve inflow forecast accuracy.