中文摘要：

2008年5月12日在低地形变速率的龙门山断裂带上突发汶川强震,引发人们对该地震孕震机制的思考.本文根据GPS观测资料确定边界条件,通过三维粘弹性数值模拟探讨了汶川地震的孕震机理,计算了该区域岩石圈的应力增加速率和积累过程,以及汶川地震同震应力变化与震后应力松弛,在此基础上估算了汶川8.0级大地震的复发周期.数值模拟结果表明：印度板块对欧亚板块的推挤造成青藏高原的物质东流,高原中、下地壳物质在龙门山断裂带处遭到相对坚硬的四川盆地的阻挡之后,部分中、下地壳物质在龙门山断裂带下堆积产生应力集中.两个重要因素为应力集中提供了重要控制作用：其一是青藏高原中、下地壳较低的粘滞系数与四川盆地中、下地壳较高的粘滞系数的差异,其二是从青藏高原到四川盆地的Moho面深度在龙门山断裂带的突变.低应变速率的龙门断裂带岩石圈在数千年时间尺度的应力积累过程中,脆性上地壳的应力随时间近乎线性增长,并且上地壳深部的应力增长率超过浅部,6000年内应力积累最大量达到-21.6MPa,应力增长速率为-0.0036MPa/a；而柔性的中、下地壳以及岩石圈上地幔的应力在增长一段时间之后趋于稳定.在空间上,龙门山断裂带受到的压应力从断层西南向北东方向逐渐减小,而剪应力从西南到北东方向逐渐增大,应力状态有利于地震发生时断层的破裂方式从西南的逆冲运动向北东的逆冲兼走滑运动的方式发展.通过应力积累与地震应力降的计算得到汶川8.0级大地震的复发周期约为5400年.

英文摘要：

Wenchuan earthquake （Ms 8.0） occurred in the section of the Longmenshan fault where slow strain had accumulated. The stress change during this accumulation period is computed through 3-D finiteelement modeling assuming viseo-elasticity rheology and using the GPS data to quantify the boundary conditions. We calculate the stress accumulation in the lithosphere of the Longmenshan fault area, the co- seismic stress change and the post-seismic stress relaxation to estimate the Wenchuan earthquake recurrence interval. It is shown that the eastern movement of Tibet Plateau resulting from the India-Asia collision is obstructed in the Longmenshan fault area by the strong Sichuan Basin. The soft materials of the middle and lower crust of Tibet Plateau accumulate at the contact of the basin resulting in stress concentration. Two factors are controlling this stress concentration. The first is the sharp reduction of the Moho thickness at the Longmenshan fault as one moves from the Tibetan Plateau to the Sichuan Basin. The second factor is the large difference in the viscosity of the middle and the lower crust between the Tibetan Plateau and the Sichuan Basin. During the inter-seismic period, stress increases almost linearly in time in the brittle upper crust of the Longmenshan fault, and the stress rate is larger at greater depths in the upper crust. The maximum stress accumulation of --21.6 MPa, with a steady rate of --0. 0036MPa/y at the bottom of the upper crust, is reached after 6000 years. However, stress increases exponentially in the ductile middle and lower crust and in the upper lithospheric mantle. The spatial distribution of the stress after these 6000 years is as follows. The normal stress decreases, but the shear stress increases from Southwest to Northeast in the upper crust on the Longmenshan fault. This stress distribution explains the motion of the fault in thrust in the SW and in strike-slip motion in the NE. The recurrence interval of Wenchuan earthquake is estimated to be 5400 years corresponding to th