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中文摘要：
利用1961-2012年气象数据资料,采用线性回归、反距离加权空间插值（IDW）对北方农牧交错带气温、降水气候要素的时间演变特征进行了分析,并在此基础上运用Is指数和Morlet小波变换等方法研究该区域的干旱状况。结果显示：近52年来,北方农牧交错带气温增温速率为0.32℃/10a,降水量减少速率为7.35mm/10a,气候暖干化趋势明显;气候暖干化导致该区干旱灾害的发生频率增加、强度加剧;干旱灾害主要存在7a和8a的年际变化周期,1989年以前气候偏湿润,1989年以后干旱严重;干旱灾害发生频率最高的是西北段部分,西北段和东北段偏旱与大旱严重,而华北段重旱严峻。
英文摘要：
Based on the meteorological data of the farming- pastoral ecotones in northern China from 1961 to2012,the temporal characteristics of precipitation and temperature were analyzed by using methods of linear regression,inverse distance weighted spatial interpolation; on this bases,drought disaster was analyzed by using Is index and Morlet wavelet transform. Results showed that temperature presented an increasing trend over the last52 years in the farming- pastoral ecotone of northern China,the temperature tendency rate was 0. 32 ℃ /10 a,precipitation presented a decreasing trend,the precipitation tendency rate was 7. 35 mm /10 a,climate warming-drying trend was apparent. The climate warming- drying resulted in increased frequency of drought disasters and aggravated drought intensity; the drought had a 7 years and 8 years periodic oscillation,it was moist before 1989 and drought after 1989. The occurrence frequency of drought disaster was the highest in the northwest section,light drought and heavy drought was serious in northwest and northeast section,and severe drought was serious in north China section.
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