中文摘要：

采用线性回归、累计距平、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall方法和Morlet小波分析方法,对1956-2013年泗河流域年径流量的变化趋势、突变特征和周期性变化规律进行了相互论证研究。结果表明：泗河流域年径流量总体上呈现下降趋势,1967年为径流发生变化的突变点,其后泗河流域径流有明显的下降趋势,泗河流域年径流存在多种不同时间尺度的变化周期,其中12a左右的周期震荡最强。

英文摘要：

By using linear regression, cumulative anomaly, glide variety, Mann-Kendall methods and Morlet wavelet analysis, the an- nual runoff variation trend, abrupt change characteristics and period rule of Sihe River basin from 1956 to 2013 have been studied mutually. The results indicate that the annual runoff of Sihe River Basin has a downside on the whole. The year 1967 is the abrupt change point of the runoff change and then there is a declining trend in the follow year obviously. There are many cycles based on dif- ferent time scales in Sihe River Basin runoff, among them, the strongest shock about it is 12 years.