中文摘要：

给出一种基于多元统计的水质动态评价模型方法,该模型方法以全局主成分分析（GPCA）方法为主,以动态聚类分析、判别分析为辅助方法。再以湟水流域水质断面为例,根据有机污染、无机污染和综合污染等3个方面对这些水质断面1998—2005年水质污染状态进行定量评价和动态分析。研究结果表明：湟水流域水质断面有机污染较为严重,以上3个方面的污染状态逐年严重,综合污染指数均值从1998年的1.63605上升到2005年的2.38624,2001年以后有加速恶化的迹象。

英文摘要：

This paper provided a dynamic evaluation model for water quality based on multivariate statistical analysis.And this model includes three analysis methods,i.e.generalization principal component analysis（GPCA）,cluster analysis,discriminant analysis.Taking Huangshui River Basin for example,this model was used for dynamic analysis and quantitative evaluation of water quality from the year of 1998 ～ 2005.And this water quality system includes three factors,i.e.organic pollution,inorganic pollution and integral pollution.The results suggested：（1） the water sections in Huangshui River Basin was seriously polluted by organic pollutants;（2） the polluting status of every section for the three aspects strengthened gradually in recent years,the mean of integration pollutant index increased from 1.63605 in 1998 to 2.38624 in 2005;and（3） there is a trend of increased speed since 2001.