基于2015年湖南省水稻主产区种粮大户的调查数据,分析了耕地流转租期对种粮大户的农业生产性投资的作用机制与影响。研究结果发现:耕地经营规模显著促进种粮大户的农业生产性投资去向及投资额,而且经营规模引致的生产需求增长是种粮大户进行生产性投资的内生动力,政府配套补贴与奖励是外在推动力;流转租期对种粮大户投资行为的解释力度低于预期,原因在于投资品用途趋广以及农机横、纵向联合,引发种粮大户的身份特征正由单一的生产者向生产者与服务供应者的复合型角色转变,由此熨平种植大户的投资收益风险并降低其对流转租期的期望。后续国家农业生产性投资政策应当保持或适度缩减政府的外在投资激励程度,尽可能发挥种植大户自身投资的风险及最优投资边界的控制,以避免生产性投资存量膨胀而可能带来的不良效果。
Based on survey data of rice producing areas of large grain grower in Hunan Province during year 2015,this article analyzes the influence on land lease and large grain grower's production investment. The results show that size of farmland significantly promotes the agricultural production investment direction and investment,and the important propulsion to productive investment is the increasing demand caused by scale of management,while the government subsidies supporting and incentives are the external driving forces. Cultivated land lease investment fails to explain large grain grower's behavior,due to the wide application of investment goods,also has originated from agricultural transverse and longitudinal combination of investment goods,and then triggers the identities change of the large grain grower from a single producer to the compound roles of producer and service provider. Subsequent national agricultural productive investment policy should maintain or moderate reduction degree of external investment incentives,make the risk of investment and the optimal investment boundary control,in order to avoid stock of productive investment expansion and the utilization of reducing.