中文摘要：

利用1982—2007年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、月平均海平面温度（SST）资料和西北太平洋、北大西洋以及北印度洋热带气旋（TC）资料,对比分析了环境动力因素对不同海域TC强度在不同时间尺度变化的影响。结果表明,在各时间尺度上,TC强度变化与垂直风切变变化有密切的联系。在西北太平洋,使TC过程强度增强或减弱的风切变阙值约为10 m/s,在北大西洋和北印度洋风切变阙值分别约为9～10 m/s和12～13 m/s。在季节时间尺度上,西北太平洋和北印度洋TC强度与垂直风切变的线性相关高于热力控制因子与强度的相关,而在北大西洋,热力控制因子的作用则明显大于垂直风切变。在年际及年代际尺度（趋势）上,垂直风切变与TC强度的相关以北大西洋最显著;尽管各海域由热力控制因子决定的最大可能强度（MPI）都呈现增强的趋势,但西北太平洋TC观测强度却呈现减弱的趋势,表明该海域环境垂直风切变的增大对强度趋势变化起主要作用,而北大西洋和北印度洋TC观测强度的增强是环境垂直风切变的减小和热力控制因子增大共同作用的结果。

英文摘要：

Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,monthly mean sea surface temperature（SST） and tropical cyclone（TC） data of the western North Pacific,and the North Atlantic and the North Indian Ocean for the period 1982—2007,the effects of environmental dynamical control on TC intensity on the different time scales were examined.Results showed that TC intensity is closely related to the change of vertical wind shear（VWS）.The threshold value is different with 10m/s over the western North Pacific,9～10 m/s and 12～13 m/s over the North Atlantic and the North Indian.For seasonal changes,the correlation between VWS and TC intensity is higher than that of the thermal control over the western North Pacific and the North Indian,while over the North Atlantic,the thermal control factor plays a more important role.For the inter-annual and inter-decadal（tendency） variations,the correlation between VWS and TC intensity is most significant over the North Atlantic.The maximum possible intensity（MPI） determined by the thermal control factor enhances in different oceans while the observed TC intensity decreases in the western North Pacific.It is indicated that the increase of vertical wind shear plays a major role in the change of TC intensity.The increase of the observed TC intensity results from the decrease of VWS and the increase of the thermal control factor over the North Atlantic and the North Indian.