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中文摘要：
基于径向基神经网络和相对价格法构建中国省际市场整合程度综合指标并分析其变动趋势,随后利用锡尔指数和Moran指数分析其空间特征,最后基于ECM-GMM面板计量模型分析其变动的显著性影响因素。研究发现：1992-2007年中国省际市场整合程度呈波动式平缓增长趋势,东部、中部和西部地区分别呈稳步提高、逐步降低、先提高后降低的趋势;全国和地区间省际市场整合程度的区域差异呈增长趋势,其空间相关性则由负空间相关演变为显著正空间相关,上海、江苏和浙江成为中国目前省际市场整合程度较高省份的显著集聚区;经济发展水平、国有经济比重、金融资本市场和国内市场规模是影响中国省际市场整合程度的显著性因素。
英文摘要：
Based on the RBF neural network and the method of relative price,this paper constructs an index for the measurement of integration degree of China＇s inter-provincial market and analyzes its changing trend,and then analyzes its spatial characteristics by using Theil index and Moran index,and finally determines the significant factors influencing its change by using ECM-GMM panel econometric models.This paper draws three conclusions.First,the nationwide integration degree of inter-provincial market in China during 1992-2007 presents a trend of fluctuating moderate increase,a trend of steady improvement is experienced in the eastern region,a trend of gradual decrease is experienced in the central region,while a trend of first increasing and then decreasing is experienced in the western region of China.Secondly,a nationwide increasing tendency which reflects regional difference of integration degree of China＇s inter-provincial market is presented,among them,internal difference in the eastern and western regions is significant,internal difference in the central region is stable,while the difference among regions is increasing.Meanwhile,its spatial correlation changes from negative to significantly positive,the region of Shanghai,Jiangsu and Zhejiang has currently become the significant clustering zone of provinces which have a relatively high integration degree of inter-provincial market in China.Thirdly,the integration degree of inter-provincial market can be significantly explained by the level of economic development,the proportion of state-owned economy,the financial capital market and the scale of domestic market.In addition,a significantly positive effect is caused by the foreign economy in the eastern region,the transportation infrastructure and foreign economy in the central region,and the capacity consumption in the western region.However,there is a negative effect on the government scale in the eastern region,furthermore,a mechanism of divergence is existing between the expansion of international market
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