中文摘要：

以二氧化碳为主的碳排放所导致的温室效应对人类社会生存与发展构成严重威胁,碳减排成为控制气候变暖的基本措施。选取2002-2014年中国的碳排放量及能源价格、人口规模、经济发展水平等13种主要影响因子的数据,通过构建偏最小二乘法模型进行分析和预测。研究表明,在负相关指标中,能源价格、能源效率对碳排放的抑制作用最显著,贡献度分别为0.377和1.065;在正相关指标中,人均消费能源、生活能源消费、人口增长对碳排放总量的解释作用最为明显,贡献度分别为1.152、1.144、1.129,科研水平对抑制碳排放贡献度较弱。通过上述研究结果,为相关部门找到控制碳排放的政策着力点提供依据。

英文摘要：

The greenhouse effect caused by carbon dioxide has become a serious threat to the survival and development of human society, therefore, carbon emission reduction turns into the basic measures of controlling climate change. The partial least squares regression model was constructed to analyze the data of multiple factors from 2002 to 2013, and combined with data of 2014 fitting results. Research shows that energy prices and energy efficiency are negatively correlated with carbon emissions, whose contribution degree is 0.377 and 1.065 respectively, and the remaining indicators are positively. The main factors that promote to carbon emissions are population size, level of economic development and the level of urbanization, while the effect of scientific research level is the weakest. The study could provide the basis for the relevant departments to find the policy of controlling carbon emissions.