中文摘要：

常规钻井平台位置警戒圈根据隔水管的静态分析方法确定,无法考虑风、浪、流等载荷作用下平台的运动轨迹,也不能确定平台达到极限位置的时间,存在一定的局限性。为此,建立了基于钻井平台-隔水管-水下井口系统的动态耦合方法,采用FLEXCOM软件建立了钻井平台漂移分析的有限元模型,得出平台动态漂移轨迹与漂移情况下隔水管-井口系统的载荷状态,并结合平台应急解脱作业的响应时间,提出了钻井船允许的漂移时间和漂移距离的计算方法。分析结果表明：漂移分析模型综合考虑了风、浪、流等载荷的影响,能够动态预测平台动力定位失效情况下钻井船的漂移轨迹;在隔水管-井口系统的选型设计时,要针对具体井开展漂移分析计算,根据计算结果评估漂移时间和距离是否满足平台响应的时间要求,根据分析确定限制因素,针对性地采取强化措施。所得结论对于保证深水钻井隔水管系统和水下井口系统的完整性具有重要意义。

英文摘要：

The warning circle of the conventional drilling platform is determined by static analysis, which is a static analysis method that does not take into account the trajectory of the platform under the load of wind, wave and current, and cannot determine the time of the platform to reach the limit position, presenting some limitations. The dynamic coupling method based on the drilling platform-drilling riser-subsea wellhead system is established. The fi-nite element model for drilling platform drift analysis has been established by FLEXCOM software to attain drilling riser-wellhead system load condition under the dynamic drift trajectory and drift condition. Combining the response time of the platform emergency disconnection operation, the calculation methods of drift time and drift distance of drilling ship have been put forward. The results show that the drift analysis model, which comprehensively considers the loads of wind, wave and current, can dynamically predict the drift trajectory of the drilling ship under the fail-ure of the platform dynamic positioning system. In the design of the drilling riser-wellhead system, drift analysis and calculation should be conducted well by well The drift time and distance should be evaluated to meet the time requirement of the platform response based on the calculation. The limiting factors should be identified based on the analysis to take concrete measures. The study results are of great importance for the integrity of the deepwater drill-ing riser system and the subsea wellhead system.