本文采用中国东、中、西部的1993年至2007年的年度样本数据,运用协整理论和VAR模型等现代计量方法,定量分析了FDI、进出口贸易对东、中、西三大区域经济增长影响的动态关系。研究发现,东、中、西部地区的FDI、进出口贸易与经济增长之间都存在长期均衡关系;东部和中部地区的进口贸易均是经济增长的Granger原因,FDI和出口贸易仅在东部构成了经济增长的Granger原因;脉冲函数和方差分解也表明,在不同的区域条件约束下,FDI、进出口贸易对经济增长的冲击并无稳定一致的关系。
This paper analyzes quantitatively the dynamic influences of FDI and international trade on eastern, central and western area economic growth using co - integration theory,VAR model and other modern measuring methods based on the annual sample data during 1993 -2007 period. Empirical results indicate that there is a long -run equilibrium relationship among FDI, international trade and regional economic growth in the eastern, central and western areas; in the eastern and central regions, the import trade is Granger cause of economic growth; only in the eastern area, FDI and export trade are Granger causes of economic growth; impulse response function and variance decomposition also shows that FDI and international trade have no consistent relationship on economic growth under different district conditions.