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中文摘要：
最近几年不断上升的供应链风险引起了企业高管的关注，尤其是来自供应商的风险，双源采购与供应商可靠性改善是企业用来缓解风险的常用策略。我们运用随机产出模型刻画了企业在双源采购下的订货决策及单个供应商可靠性改善下的订货与可靠性改善投资决策。首先，在不同的供应商可靠性与成本参数下，界定企业是单源采购还是双源采购以及订货量分配所满足的条件，并进一步指出供应商不可靠下．企业应该重点关注期望实现订货量而不是最优订货量。其次，在零售商愿意对供应商可靠性进行改善的前提下．其最优订货量减少，但其期望实现订货量增大，期望利润增加，这验证了供应商可靠性改善的价值所在：而企业可靠性改善的意愿取决于改善成本的投入、改善的成功率以及市场需求。
英文摘要：
Surveys suggest that supply chain risk is a growing issue for executives in recent years and supplier risk is of particular concern. Dual sourcing and supplier reliability improvement are common mitigation strategies within uncertain supplier reliability. We explore a random yield model in which a firm can source from dual suppliers or may exert effort to improve single supplier reliability. Firstly, we characterize the condition under which a firm should choose a single or dual supplier sourcing strategy and allocate ordering quantities among different supplier parameters including reliability and cost. We therefore conclude that when suppliers are unreliable, the firm should pay more attention to order quantity it expects for than to optimal order quantity. Secondly, we quantify the value of supplier reliability improvement, as evidenced by the firm＇s lower optimal order quantity, but higher order quantity and profit expected for. Additionally, the level of a firm＇s willingness to invest in such improvements depends on the required cost, probability of successful improvement and market demand.
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