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中文摘要：
20世纪50年代山西断陷盆地内出现了大量的地裂缝群，其中以运城盆地最为明显，在分析该地区地质构造背景的基础上，重点分析了新构造运动、抽水引起的地面沉降、降水量以及地层地貌条件对地裂缝的影响作用；采用BP神经网络模型结合地理信息系统（GIS）对地裂缝的活动性进行了预测分析，并进一步利用已知的地裂缝信息对结果进行了验证，该结论对该地区地裂缝的防治区划有一定的指导作用。
英文摘要：
Since the 1950s, hundreds of ground fissures have occurred in Shanxi Graben basin, which is espe- cially obvious in Yuncheng basin. The intensive ground fissures hazard seriously constrained the urban construction and economic development of the studied area--Yuncheng city. By thoroughly analyzing the geological tectonic background of this area, we focused on the influences of new tectonic activity, ground subsidence caused by exces- sive water withdrawn, rainfall, stratum and geomorphology conditions on the ground fissures, and predicted the ac- tivity of ground fissures by combining BP neural network with GIS, and finally verified it with the known fissures in- formation. A very sati tion of ground fissures sfying conclusion is summarized and it will play a directive role in the prevention and mitiga- disaster in this region.
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