中文摘要：

分析了四川理县一处山体滑坡2014-08～2015-08的监测数据。结果表明，滑坡处于缓慢发生中，滑移的主要方向指向山体旁的学校；1a中3个监测点在该方向上的累积位移量分别为180mm、262mm和448mm。分析降雨量资料发现，降雨对山体滑坡有延迟的影响。利用ANSYS软件对滑坡发生的过程进行数值模拟，并计算监测点的位移，结果与实际观测情况吻合较好，得到降雨量与弹性模量、密度、粘聚力、内摩擦角之间的关系。该数值模拟实验提供了一种预测滑坡的新方法。

英文摘要：

Using GPS, we monitor a landslide in Lixian, Sichuan. Over a year＇s monitoring indicates that this mountain is indeed sliding slowly, and the major direction of the slippage is pointing to the school next to the mountain. The displacement of the three monitoring points in this major direction are 180 mm, 262 mm and 448 mm. By gathering the rainfall data in the same time, the comparison indicates that rainfall has a direct effect on the landslide and that it is a delayed effect. We perform a numerical simulation of the process of the landslide using ANSYS, and calculate the displacements of the monitor points. The simulation and monitor results are nearly identical. We derive the relationship between rainfall and elasticity modulus, density, cohesion, internal friction angle, which can be used as a method of landslide prediction.