中文摘要：

＂十三五＂时期是我国实现2020年碳排放强度比2005年下降40%~45%目标的冲刺期,对碳排放控制提出了刚性要求。本文在能源消费影响因素和能源消费结构评估分析的基础上,运用BP神经网络模型对＂十三五＂时期能源消费总量进行预测,进而对碳排放量进行估算。结果表明,＂十三五＂期间碳排放累计量为482.5亿t,单位GDP二氧化碳排放下降22.01%,2020年单位GDP二氧化碳排放相对2005年下降51.48%,超额完成下降40%~45%的目标。为了实现＂十八大＂提出的全面建成小康社会的宏伟目标,同时实现我国提出的2020年碳排放减排目标,碳排放控制目标的确定应留有余地。本文建议＂十三五＂规划将我国碳排放强度目标定为下降18%左右,累计总量排放目标定为510亿t左右,同时提出了实现上述目标的路径与政策措施,为全面建成小康社会提供坚实的能源安全与生态文明保障。

英文摘要：

The 13~（th） five-year is a critical period for China to achieve a decline of per unit GDP CO_2 emission by 40%~45% from 2005 to 2020. Based on the assessment of energy consumption and its structure, this paper uses BP neural network model to predict the total energy consumption from 2015 to 2020, and then estimates CO_2 emissions. The results show that the total CO_2 emission is 48.25 billion tons and the per unit GDP CO_2 emission will decline by 22.01% in the 13 th five-year. The per unit GDP CO_2 emission will decline by 51.48% from 2005 to 2020, which is over fulfilled compared with the decline of 40%~45%. In order to achieve the objectives of completion of an overall moderately developed society proposed by the 18~（th） Party Congress, and the target of per unit GDP carbon emission reduction in 2020, this paper suggests that the reduction of per unit GDP carbon dioxide by 18% and the total carbon dioxide emission of 51 billion tons should be set as the constraint indicators for the National 13~（th） Five-Year Plan. The solutions and policy options for fulfilling the above suggested targets are also proposed in this paper in order to set our 13~（th） five-year development on a solid base of ecological civilization and energy security.