运用DOC期权定价模型对我国上市公司信用风险进行测度,并结合证券监管的ST制度和企业产权性质实证检验上市公司信用风险的影响因素。结果表明,我国上市公司违约障碍显著存在,DOC模型是对莫顿信用风险定价模型的有效改进;ST制度对被警示上市公司改善经营管理、降低信用风险具有一定的激励作用。此外,在其他条件相同的情况下,与非国有控股上市公司相比,国有上市公司潜在的债务违约风险较大,应进一步完善其治理结构,建立有效的股东监督制约机制。
This paper applies DOC model to measure the credit risk of China's listed companies and conducts an empirical test on the influencing factor of the credit risk in connection with ST regime and ownership type. The results show that China's listed companies have significant default barriers, and that DOC model is an effective improvement of Merton model; ST regime has some positive effects on the warned listed companies' management improvement and credit risk reduction. In addition, compared with the non-state- owned listed companies, the state-owned listed companies have a relatively higher default probability and larger default risk. Therefore, the further improvement of corporate governance structure and supervisory mechanism is necessary.