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中文摘要：
为了有效保证大坝安全，从大坝变形方面进行分析，提出了一种基于Kalman-马尔科夫模型的预测方法。即在Kalman预测基础上，由马尔科夫链对其进行误差修正，达到提高预测精度的效果。通过对某一拱坝变形进行预测分析，验证了该方法的预测优越性和很高的预测精度，可以作为一种新途径应用于大坝工程变形预测中，从而解决了大坝变形预测精度不高的问题。
英文摘要：
In order to effectively guarantee the safety of the dam, Kalman- Markov model is proposed from the anal- ysis of dam deformation. Namely, Markov chain based on Kalman prediction corrects the error, and ultimately im- proves the accuracy of prediction. By the calculation and analysis of deformation prediction of an arch dam deforma- tion prediction, it is verified that the method is more in line with the actual situation, and shown high accuracy of prediction and predictive superiority. The method can be applied as a new way to forecast dam deformation, to solve the problem of tow precision of dam deformation prediction.
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