中文摘要：

基于1998-2010年中国省际面板数据，分析了R＆D投入强度、经济发展水平、人口规模、产业结构、能源强度对二氧化碳排放量的影响。研究表明，碳排放量与各影响变量之间存在长期的均衡关系，其中经济发展水平和人口规模每变动一个百分点分别会带动二氧化碳同方向变动约为0.975和0.816的百分点，R＆D投入强度每变动一个单位会平均减少约0.111个单位的碳排放。由此可知，加大研发投入、调整产业结构、采用节能技术降低能源强度是现阶段中国减少二氧化碳排放的可行路径。

英文摘要：

Based on the provincial panel data from 1998 to 2010,this paper analyzes the effects of four factors on carbon dioxide emissions,including R＆D input intensity,economic development level,urbanization, industrial structure and energy intensity. The research shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between carbon emissions and the effect variables. One percentage change of the level of economic development and the population size will lead to changes of carbon cmssim in the same direction by 0.975% and 0.816% respectively; one unit change of R＆D intensity will lead to a decrease of carbon emission by 0.111 unit. Therefore,in order to reduce the carbon emissions,feasible measures should be：to increase R＆D input,to adjust industrial structure,and to reduce energy intensity by applying energy saving technology.