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中文摘要：
【目的】在全球气候变化背景下,分析中国北方地区的热量和降水资源变化特征,以及北方地区农业气候资源和种植制度界限变动情况。【方法】基于中国北方地区14个省（市、自治区）308个气象台站地面观测资料,综合分析热量和降水资源的年际和空间变化趋势。结合中国种植制度气候区划指标,分析从1950s—1980年和1981—2007年种植北界的空间位移情况。在种植制度北界变化敏感地带选择典型站点,运用作物生产潜力逐级订正法计算由一年一熟春玉米、春小麦及冬小麦种植模式改变为一年两熟冬小麦-夏玉米种植模式导致的作物生产潜力变化。【结果】（1）中国北方地区气温普遍升高,≥0℃积温带北移西扩,温度上升的累积效应十分明显,≥0℃积温为每10年升高65.5℃。年降水量呈带状分布,由东南向西北减少,全区年降水量呈减小的趋势,年降水量每10年变化-90—23mm,平均为每10年减少10.6mm。（2）在热量和降水共同影响下,北部中高原半干旱凉温作物一熟区（Ⅱ）面积减少,东北西北低高原半干旱温凉作物一熟区（Ⅲ）在东北地区面积增加,而在西北和华北地区面积减少,东北平原丘陵半湿润温凉作物一熟区（Ⅳ）面积增加,黄淮海水浇地二熟旱地二熟一熟区（Ⅵ）向北移动,总体而言北方地区东北部种植界限空间位移显著,而西南部变化不明显。（3）在种植制度北界变动的敏感地带,作物生产潜力明显改变：在东北平原丘陵半湿润温凉作物一熟区变化为一年二熟区,作物生产潜力增加1979kg.hm-2,相当于单位面积土地周年产量增加15.3%;在东北西北低高原半干旱温凉作物一熟区改变为一年二熟区,作物生产潜力增加7912kg·hm^-2,相当于单位面积土地周年产量增加155.2%;在东北西北低高原半干旱温凉作物一熟区春小麦种植改变为春玉米,作物生产潜力增加2873kg·hm^-2,?
英文摘要：
【Objective】 Under the background of global climate change,the obvious changes that had taken place in heat and precipitation resources in northern China were studied. Furthermore,the possible effects of climate warming on the agro-climatic resources and cropping systems in northern China were analyzed. 【Method】 Based on 308 meteorological observations stations from 14 provinces （municipalities and autonomous regions） in northern China,the inter-decadal and spatial variation trends of heat and precipitation resource were analyzed. According to the climatic regionalization indicators of cropping systems in China,the spatial displacement of planting north boundary during 1950s—1980 and 1981—2007 was analyzed. The major method used was choosing typical stations in the sensitive zone of cultivation northern boundary,and crop potential productivity step correction method to calculate the potential yield change due to cropping pattern shift between one crop （spring maize,spring wheat,winter wheat） a year and two crops （winter-summer maize） a year. 【Result】 Temperatures in northern China had generally increased,≥0℃ accumulated temperature zone showed a north shift and a west spread,the cumulative effects of temperature rising were significant,the climatic tendency of cumulative temperature was 65.5 ℃.d/10a. Distribution of annual precipitation had presented a regional difference and reduced from southeast to northwest. Along to this,in the whole region it also showed a decreasing trend,the climatic tendency of precipitation varied from -90.0 mm/10a to 23.0 mm/10a,with an average level of -10.6 mm/10a. Under the combined effect of heat and precipitation,in the research area,the area of one-crop of cool-warm plants in semi-arid medium plateau in north （Ⅱ） declined,in area of one-crop of warm-cool plants in semi-arid low plateau in northeast and northwest （Ⅲ） increased in northeast China,and declined in North China and northwest China. The area of one-crop of warm-cool plants in
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