中文摘要：

乌裕尔河流域是气候变化的敏感区,其径流量是扎龙湿地的重要补给水源,探讨气候变化情景下乌裕尔河流域径流量的变化对区域社会经济发展和扎龙湿地生态环境保护具有重要的现实意义。本文利用SWAT模型对乌裕尔河流域进行径流模拟,并分析未来气候变化情景下河流径流量的变化。结果表明：SWAT模型可以较好地模拟乌裕尔河流域的径流量变化过程,尤其是产流量大的站点,模拟效率较高;气候变化对径流量影响较为显著,未来气候变化情景下,流域径流量随着时间的推移不断减少,而且不同水文站径流量减少幅度不同。

英文摘要：

The Wuyur River Basin, located in the inland semi-arid region, is sensitive to climate change. The streamflow of Wuyur River is an important recharge source of Zhalong Wetland. The study on the streamflow change associated with the future climate change scenarios has a practical significance for the local socio-economic development and eco-environmental protection of Zhalong Wetland. With the distributed hydrological model of SWAT, the streamflow in the Wuyur River Basin was simulated, and the hydrological response to climate change was analyzed. The simulated results showed that the SWAT model could effectively simulate the streamflow change in the Wuyur River Basin. Especially, at the stations with large amounts of streamflow, the efficiency of simulation was satisfactory. The influence of climate change on streamflow was significant. The streamflow in the future climate change scenarios decreased gradually over time, and different hydrological stations had different streamflow change amplitude. Considering the decrease in streamflow, we need to apply a reasonable water resources allocation for the wetlands in the watershed to alleviate the adverse effects.