中文摘要：

利用贵州省36个国家标准气象站1960—2008年实测日降水、日气温资料和1956—2000年实测月流量资料以及IPCC第4次评估报告发布的24个GCMs月气温和降水资料,采用基于ArcGIS的地理分析模块建立的气温-降水-径流关系及双参数气候径流弹性指数方法,分析了气候变化对贵州省思南以上乌江流域水文水资源的影响.结果表明：如降水增加20%,在气温保持不变时,径流将增加22%左右;在气温升高0.8℃时,径流仅增加17%;在气温降低0.5℃时,径流则增加27%以上.可见,贵州省思南以上乌江流域径流与降水显著正相关,与气温微弱负相关,而且径流对降水减少更敏感.气候径流弹性指数分析表明：降水增加1%时,径流相应增加1.15%~1.69%,降水减少1%时,径流则相应减少1.46%~1.69%.

英文摘要：

Based on measured daily precipitation and daily temperature data from 36 national meteorological stations in Guizhou Province for the period from 1960 to 2008,the measured monthly discharge from 1956 to 2000,and the temperature and precipitation of the 24 GCMs in the IPCC＇s Fourth Assessment Report,the temperature-precipitationstreamflow relationship established by the ArcGIS Geostatistical Analyst and the two-parameter climate elasticity of streamflow index approach were used to analyze the effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources upstream of Sinan Station in the Wujiang Basin in Guizhou Province.The results show that a 20% increase of precipitation will causes a 22% increase of streamflow when the temperature remains constant,that there will be a 17% increase of streamflow when the temperature increases by 0.8℃,and that there will be a 27% increase of streamflow when the temperature decreases by 0.5℃.The results indicate that the streamflow in the basin is significantly positively correlated with precipitation and slightly negatively correlated with temperature,and the streamflow is more sensitive to the decrease of precipitation.Analysis of the climate elasticity of streamflow index shows that the streamflow increases by 1.15% to 1.69% when there is a 1% increase of precipitation and decreases by 1.46% to 1.69 % when there is a 1% decrease of precipitation.