中文摘要：

提出一种将模糊规则库和证据推理相结合的风险评价方法，用于解决不确定条件下内河运输系统的通航风险评价问题。首先以定性和定量相结合的方式建立内河运输系统的层次型通航风险识别模型；然后通过构建模糊规则库将量化数据转换成定性评价结果；最后运用证据推理自下而上合成各层级的评价结果，实现对通航安全水平的整体评价。通过评价和比较长江干线三个不同航段的通航安全水平，对所提方法的有效性进行验证。

英文摘要：

A novel method incorporating the fuzzy rule base technique and the Evidential Reasoning （ER） algorithm is developed to conduct the navigational risk assessment of an Inland Waterway Transportation System （IWTS）. A hierarchical structure for modeling IWTS navigational hazards （hazard identification model） is constructed using both qualitative and quantitative approaches. The quantitative criteria are converted to qualitative ones by applying a fuzzy rule based quantitative data transformation technique, which enables the use of ER to synthesize the risk estimates from the bottom to the top along the hierarchy. The proposed method is applied in a case study to compare the navigational safety levels of three different regions in Yangtze River.