中文摘要：

应用生态适宜度理论和模糊数学方法,建立柑桔气候适宜度模型,对中国亚热带地区柑桔生产的气候适宜性及其时空差异进行了计算、评价,并分析了中国亚热带地区柑桔各生育期气候适宜性以及中国亚热带地区各县区的平均气候适宜度.结果表明：柑桔花芽分化期、发芽期、果实成熟期的适宜性较低、风险较高,其他各生育期的适宜性较高、风险较低,影响中国亚热带地区柑桔生产的关键问题是冷害和伏旱.柑桔温度适宜性的地域分异呈纬度地带性规律;降水适宜度最适宜型分布在亚热带中部＂射阳-那坡＂一线区域,其东南为适宜型区,西北为次适宜型区,高山区为不适宜型区;日照适宜度与实际日照时数的区域变化规律基本一致,大致呈高纬度区高于低纬度区、高海拔区高于低海拔区;受温度因子的限制,气候适宜度与温度适宜度的分布情况大体一致,南部大于北部,基本也呈纬度地带性规律.从中国亚热带地区柑桔气候适宜度的年际变化分析可知,整个亚热带地区柑桔气候适宜度呈下降趋势,且存在区域差异,说明气候变化引起了中国亚热带柑桔适宜区和关键生育期的变动.

英文摘要：

By applying the theories of ecological suitability and the methods of fuzzy mathematics,this paper established a climatic suitability model for citrus,calculated and evaluated the climatic suitability and its spatiotemporal differences for citrus production in subtropical China,and analyzed the climatic suitability of citrus at its different growth stages and the mean climatic suitability of citrus in different regions of subtropical China.The results showed that the citrus in subtropical China had a lower climatic suitability and a higher risk at its flower bud differentiation stage,budding stage,and fruit maturity stage,but a higher climatic suitability and a lower risk at other growth stages.Cold damage and summer drought were the key issues affecting the citrus production in subtropical China.The citrus temperature suitability represented a latitudinal zonal pattern,i.e.,decreased with increasing latitude;its precipitation suitability was high in the line of ＂Sheyang-Napo＂,medium in the southeast of the line,low in the northwest of the line,and non in high mountainous area;while the sunlight suitability was in line with the actual duration of sunshine,namely,higher in high-latitude areas than in low-latitude areas,and higher in high-altitude areas than in plain areas.Limited by temperature factor,the climatic suitability was in accordance with temperature suitability,i.e.,south parts had a higher suitability than north parts,basically representing latitudinal zonal pattern.From the analysis of the inter-annual changes of citrus climatic suitability,it could be seen that the citrus climatic suitability in subtropical China was decreasing,and had obvious regional differences,suggesting that climate change could bring about the changes in the regions suitable for citrus production and in the key stages of citrus growth.