电力系统负荷预测对电力系统的调度运行和生产计划有很大影响,准确的负荷预测有助于提高电力系统的安全性、稳定性、经济性,随着电力市场的建立与发展,负荷预测将发挥越来越重要的作用。简述了电力系统负荷预测的概念和意义,对现有的负荷预测方法进行分类,介绍了各种预测方法的原理,讨论了各种方法的优点与不足之处。最后,对电力系统负荷预测方法未来的发展方向做出了展望。
The load forecasting is an important task of power utilities, which is wildly used in the dispatching and operation planning of power systems, and the accurate load forecasting is helpful for the security and stability of power systems as well as reducing the power generation costs. With the estabhshment and development of the power market, load forecasting will play a more important role in power systems. The definition and meaning of load forecasting were introduced. The current load forecasting methods were classified and the basic theories, advantages and disadvantages of different methods were described. Finally, the future development direction of the load forecasting methods was discussed.