本文应用台湾股指期权市场详细的交易数据,对台指期权交易量的信息含量进行了全面系统的实证检验。我们从全市场、不同投资者以及不同在值程度期权分类角度分别构建了多个五分钟交易量指标,并检验它们对未来台指走势的预测能力。我们发现,全市场的期权交易量指标基本不具备未来指数走势预测能力,但境内机构投资者和境外机构投资者交易量中包含显著的预测信息,价外期权的信息明显地优于价内期权和平价期权。
In this paper, we examine the informational content of option trading volume using the detailed trans- action data in TXO market. We construct the five-minute informational volume indicators for the whole option market, the different type of investor and the different type of moneyness, and test their ability for predicting the underlying stock return. We find that option volume of the whole market almost has no predictive power, howev- er, for domestic? institutional investors and? foreign institutional? investors, trading volume? contains? sig- nificant? information and the OTM options clearly contain much information than ITM options and ATM op- tions.