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中文摘要：
深入研究环渤海地区旱涝变化特征,以期为制定防灾减灾政策,提高旱涝灾害应变能力提供参考。依据1961-2013年环渤海地区60个气象台站的逐月降水资料,采用Z指数确定旱涝等级及分布年份;运用频次分析法和Morlet连续复小波分别对旱涝灾害与太阳黑子活动、ENSO的统计关系进行详尽分析。结果表明：1 1961-2013年环渤海地区旱涝频发,且旱灾略多于涝灾。2黑子相对数与旱涝指数呈显著负相关性,与旱涝等级呈显著正相关性;旱涝灾害频率为黑子极大值年附近高于极小值年,且极大值年附近旱灾明显多于涝灾;黑子活动单周期内易发生旱灾,双周期内旱涝交替发生。3 ENSO强度与旱涝指数呈明显负相关性,与旱涝等级呈显著正相关性;旱涝灾害频率为EL Nino和LA Nina年基本一致,且EL Nino年旱灾明显多于涝灾。4太阳黑子活动与旱涝指数小尺度周期对应关系良好,即黑子活动平静期对应降水充沛期,黑子活动活跃期对应降水偏少期,故太阳黑子活动对旱涝交替有较大影响;ENSO事件与旱涝指数小尺度周期对应关系不太一致,存在交错现象,但ENSO事件对旱涝指数各尺度周期的下滑有较大影响。
英文摘要：
Based on monthly measured precipitation data of 60 meteorological stations over circum-Bohairegion from 1961 to 2013, the level and distribution years of the drought and flood were determined by using Z index. In order to explore the relative mechanism of the drought and flood over circum-Bohai-region, correlation analysis between the Sunspot activities and the drought and flood, and between ENSO events and the drought and flood was conducted, respectively, by using frequency analysis and Morlet wavelet method. The results showed that： ① The drought and flood occurred frequently, and the drought was slightly higher than the flood over circum-Bohai-region from 1961 to 2013. ②There was a significant negative correlation between relative Sunspot number and drought and flood index, and a significant positive correlation between relative Sunspot number and drought and flood level. The frequency of occurrence of the drought and flood in the Sunspot maximum years was higher than in the minimum years, and the drought was significantly more than the flood in the Sunspot maximum years. It was prone to the drought in singular cycle of Sunspot activity, while the drought and flood occurred alternately within dual period of Sunspot activity. ③There was a significant negative correlation between ENSO events and drought and flood index, and a significant positive correlation between ENSO events and drought and flood level. The frequency of the drought and flood was the same in the EL Nino years and LA Nina years, and probability of the drought was significantly higher than the flood in the EL Nino years. ④There was a good corresponding relationship between the Sunspot activities and small scale period of drought and flood index , namely, the quiet period of Sunspot corresponded to the abundant precipitation period and the active period of Sunspot corresponded to the less rainfall period, indicating that the Sunspot activities had a great influence on the alternating of drought and flood. The corresponding relationship
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