中文摘要：

中小企业是国民经济发展中的重要力量,然而其成长过程却有较高的不确定性。为了构建稳健且能有效预测中小企业成长危机的预警模型,以2003年沪深中小上市公司为样本,运用Logit regression构建模型,采用2004年的样本公司对模型进行稳健性检测,最终结果表明,Logit模型可以有效预测中小企业成长危机。公司业绩和主营业务是影响中小企业成长性的重要因素。

英文摘要：

The small and medium-sized enterprises（SMEs） are playing an important role in the national economy today with lots of uncertain factors in their growth. Our paper takes the common stocks of the SMEs in 2003 as samples using the variables by the correlation and significance test, and establish the model by Logit regression. Then we check the model by the samples of the SMEs in 2004. The result shows that the Logit model is an effective and stable model for predicting the growth crisis of the SMEs. We come to the conclusion that performance and sales are related to the growth of SMEs.