针对当前土地利用模拟技术在岩溶地区应用较少的现状,该文提出了利用CLUE-S模型对岩溶地区土地利用变化进行模拟。此模型全面考虑自然和人文因子,通过迭代方法综合空间分析和非空间分析,较好地模拟小尺度范围内土地利用变化,具有综合性、开放性、空间性、竞争效率性等特点。研究结果表明:该模型不仅能够准确地反映未来研究区土地利用变化趋势,而且能较好地筛选影响未来土地利用变化主要影响因子,进行不同情景土地利用变化模拟,对岩溶地区土地利用规划和管理具有参考价值。
For lacking the approach application for land use simulation in Karst regions,this paper used CLUE-S model to simulate land use change in Karst mountainous area.The CLUE-S model,which was based on comprehensive consideration on the basis of natural and human factors,could simulate smallscaled land use change scenarios with characteristics of integrity,openness,spatiality and competitive efficiency.The results showed that this model could accurately reflect the trend of land use change and selected the main factors affecting land use change to simulate future land use change under different scenarios,which had significance for land use planning and management in Karst mountain area.