中文摘要：

当前我国新农保基础养老金替代率仅为11.15%,考虑到个人账户缴费补贴,即使按照最高缴费档次、最长缴费年限参保,新农保个人账户替代率也仅为10.87%。农村居民养老金替代率不仅远低于国际劳工组织55%的最低规定,与城镇居民相比也有很大的差距。新农保与旧农保最显著的区别在于是否有财政补贴。当前政府对新农保的财政投入过少,农村居民的养老需求很难得到保障。利用2010年人口普查数据与国家财政收入数据进行预测,发现当基础养老金替代率为15%时,2011-2020年基础养老金财政投入占当年度财政收入比重最高不超过0.83%。在个人账户缴费补贴方面,保持现有缴费档次不变,按个人账户缴费档次的30%予以调整对参保人具有一定的激励性。

英文摘要：

We find that the fundamental annuities replacement rate of the current new rural social pension insurance system is only 11.15% by the insurance annuity model.Even to be insured at the highest individual payment level and the longest years of payment,the individual account replacement rate is only 10.87%.The international labor organization stipulates that the minimum pension substitution rate was 55%.The annuities replacement rate of the rural resident is not only far lower than the minimum regulation,but also significantly different from the urban workers.The government financial subsidies make the new rural social pension insurance system different from the old one.The government has paid too little on the current new rural social pension insurance system,and the eldly＇s life in rural area is hard to be guaranteed.Using the 2010 population census and the related central financial data,we find that if the fundamental annuities replacement rate increased to 15%,financial investment to fundamental annuities account for not more than 0.83% of the central government revenue during 2011-2020.As to the subsidies on individual account,keeping current individual payment grade and adjusting the subsidies to 30%,will be incentive to the insured.