中文摘要：

本文根据政府规模＂内在规模＂与＂外在规模＂的划分,利用微观调查数据和Ordered Probit模型,实证分析了税收感知度、税收负担对居民政府规模偏好的影响。研究发现,在控制居民的收入水平、教育水平等个体特征的情况下,税收感知度对居民的政府＂内在规模＂与＂外在规模＂偏好均具有显著的影响,即居民的税收感知度越高,其对限制＂政府权力规模＂、＂政府机构与公务员规模＂和＂行政经费开支规模＂的偏好越强烈。但是,税收负担仅对居民的政府＂外在规模＂偏好具有显著的影响,对居民的政府＂内在规模＂偏好不具有显著的影响,即居民的税收负担越重,其对限制＂政府机构与公务员规模＂和＂行政经费开支规模＂的偏好越强烈。此外,进一步的边际效应估计结果显示,税收感知度和税收负担对居民政府＂外在规模＂偏好的边际影响大体相当,但是,税收感知度和税收负担对居民政府＂内在规模＂偏好的边际影响存在显著的差异。

英文摘要：

Based on the division standard of inner scale and external scale of government, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the effect of tax perception and tax burden on residents＇ preference of government scale, by using micro-survey data and Ordered Probit Model. The results show that tax perception has a significant influence on residents＇preference of government inner scale and external scale, in the case of a control on income level, education level and some other factors. However, tax burden only has a significant impact on the residents＇ preferences of government external scale, but has no significant impact on the residents＇ preferences of government inner scale. In addition, the marginal effect estimation shows that the marginal impact of the tax perception and tax burden on residents＇ preference of government external scale is roughly the same, but their marginal impact on residents＇ preference of government inner scale is significantly different.