中文摘要：

应用逐步回归分析方法和GIS技术,构建福建省越冬期极端最低气温（Td）和4个等级冻害指标-2Td≤0℃,-3Td≤-2℃,-4Td≤-3℃, Td-4℃）发生频次空间分析模型，根据荔枝寒（冻）害评价指标，对闽东南荔枝种植区进行区划．结果表明：1）闽东南荔枝种植区可分为最适宜区（微寒害区）、适宜区（轻度寒害区）、中等适宜区（中度冻害区）、不适宜区（重度冻害区），其中最适宜区、适宜区划区结果与实际荔枝种植分布较吻合；2）闽东南荔枝种植最适宜区主要分布在诏安至连江东南沿海平原，适宜区主要分布在沿海平原与东南丘陵过渡地区，中等适宜区、不适宜区主要分布在适宜区以西海拔较高地区。

英文摘要：

The spatial models about winter extreme low temperature and 4 levels＇（-2Td≤0℃,-3Td≤-2℃,-4Td≤-3℃, Td-4℃）of cold damage model were built, by using stepwise regression analysis and GIS technology, the planting areas of Litchi in the southeast of Fujian province were divided according to the grading index. The result showed that： 1）the planting areas of Litchi in the southeast of Fujian province were divided into the most suitable areas（slight chilling injuryareas）, suitable areas（mild chilling injury areas）, moderate suitable area（moderate freezing injury areas）, and unsuitable areas（severe freezing injury areas）. The most suitable areas and suitable areas are consistent with the planting areas of Litchi.2）The most suitable areas in Fujian province are located in the southeast coastal plain from Zhaoan county to Lianjiang county, the suitable areas are located in the transition zone between southeast coastal plain and hills, moderate suitable areas and unsuitable areas are distributed mostly in the west of most suitable areas and suitable areas which were in high mountains areas.