针对非常规突发事件具有突发性和不可预测性等特点,在借助救灾专家判断偏好的基础上,应急决策者需要根据阶段性的处理结果和突发事件的演化趋势动态地调整救援方案.首先构建数学模型,详细分析动态博弈框架下应急管理中应急决策者与突发事件之间的序贯博弈过程.通过有限次序贯博弈获取未来应急资源的需求信息,形成资源调度的最优方案,为应急决策人员在突发事件爆发后应急救援资源的调度提供决策支持.最后通过具体的算例分析,探讨了运用序贯博弈模型生成最佳调度预案的方法.
A mathematical model is established on the basis of the dynamic games. Then the process of sequential games between decision maker and emergency is analyzed in detail. The information about the future demand of resources is got through finitely sequential games in order to bring forth the optimal scheduling plans of resources and to provide support for the decision-making when an emergency bursts out. Finally, the method of how to use the model of sequential games to generate the best scheduling plans is given by a specific example.