中文摘要：

在新凯恩斯的分析框架下,根据中国经济的实际发展情况,构建了包括家庭、中间品厂商、最终品厂商、中央银行以及财政部门在内的动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型,评估了＂营改增＂的减税效应。对＂营改增＂减税效应的评估从两个维度进行：首先,把流转税领域税负减轻作为一个外生冲击,分析了社会总产出、消费水平、政府支出、劳动水平、工资水平、投资和资本存量等宏观经济变量的变动趋势;其次,构建了＂营改增＂前后两个不同的政策环境,并模拟了投资下降的经济下行冲击,对比分析了减税前后总产出对外生冲击的反应程度。研究发现：＂营改增＂虽然降低了政府部门的税收收入,但其减税效应能促进产出和消费的增加,激发整个经济的增长潜力;目前的改革力度在应对经济下行压力时尚没有发挥出预期的效果。

英文摘要：

Under the framework of New Keynesian analysis,according to the actual development of China’s economy,this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium（ DSGE） model including family,intermediate product manufacturers,final product manufacturers,central banks and finance departments,and assess the tax reduction effect of＂replacing the business tax with the valued-added tax＂. The paper makes an analysis on the tax reduction effect of the＂replacing the business tax with the valued-added tax＂from two dimensions. First,it reduces the tax burden in the field of turnover tax as an exogenous shock,and analyzes the changing tendency of such macro-economic variables as total social output,consumption level,government expenditure,labor level,salary level,investment and capital stock and others. Secondly,two different policy environments are constructed before and after the＂replacing the business tax with the valued-added tax＂,and the economic impact of investment decline is simulated. In addition,the response degree of total output to exogenous shock before and after tax reduction is compared and analyzed. The research shows that the ＂replacing the business tax with the valued-added tax＂reduces the tax revenue of government departments,but its tax reduction effect can promote the increase of output and consumption,stimulate the growth potential of the whole economy; the current reform efforts to cope with the economic downturn does not play the desired effect.