中文摘要：

基于CA原理,结合GIS与RS技术,在ArcGIS平台中进行二次开发,构建了GIS-CA模型系统.以营口市为研究区域,对其城市用地扩展进行了模拟和预测.研究表明：GIS与CA集成,增强了GIS的时空动态建模功能,CA模型和GIS耦合是研究城市扩展动态模拟与预测的较为可行的研究方法;利用GIS-CA模型模拟和预测了营口城市用地变化趋势,对营口城市用地扩展模拟的结果比较合理,模拟的精度达到70%以上.

英文摘要：

At present ,most of the cities in our country are at the initial stage of fast expanding, more and more construction land will be needed. Therefore a new technique should be introduced to forecast the increasing of construction land of a city,and help the managers to make reasonable decisions. Based on CA （cellular automata）, and combined the techniques of GIS and RS, this paper designed a model named GIS-CA on the platform of ArcGIS, to simulate and forecast the expansion of Yingkou＇s construction land. Conclusion can be classified into followings： firstly,the integration of GIS and CA is a feasible method for simulating urban expansion;secondly, by using GIS-CA, we forecast the changing tendency of urban land use of Yingkou, and the result is reasonable, and the simulation accuracy reaches 70 %.