中文摘要：

在 Huaihe 河盆上的季节的降雨可预测性在这份报纸被评估根据 23 年(1981-2003 ) 由从亚太经济合作(APEC ) 气候的 10 个气候模型的回顾的预报集中(APCC ) 多模型整体(MME ) 预言系统。在这盆的夏天降雨变化大部分是内部的，这被发现，它为很单个的气候模型导致更低的降雨可预测性。由划分， 10 根据他们包括的边界条件观察了的海表面温度(SST ) 当模特儿进三个范畴，预言，并且坚持的 SST，在 Huaihe 河盆上的夏天降雨的 MME 确定的预兆的技巧被调查。MME 为增加当前的季节的预报技巧是有效的，这被显示出。MME 平均在上的进一步的分析表演预言了 SST 模型在在 Huaihe 复制夏天降雨异例的观察主导的模式与模型的能力有关仔细有最高的降雨预言技巧，它是河盆。这结果能进一步被归功于到预言的 SST MME 是为在赤道的海洋在 Huaihe 河盆和 SST 异例(SSTA ) 上捕获在夏天降雨异例之间的关系的最有效的模型整体的事实。

英文摘要：

Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Huaihe River basin is evaluated in this paper on the basis of 23-year （1981-2003） retrospective forecasts by 10 climate models from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation （APEC） Climate Center （APCC） multi-model ensemble （MME） prediction system. It is found that the summer rainfall variance in this basin is largely internal, which leads to lower rainfall predictability for most individual climate models. By dividing the 10 models into three categories according to their sea surface temperature （SST） boundary conditions including observed, predicted, and persistent SSTs, the MME deterministic predictive skill of summer rainfall over Huaihe River basin is investigated. It is shown that the MME is effective for increasing the current seasonal forecast skill. Further analysis shows that the MME averaged over predicted SST models has the highest rainfall prediction skill, which is closely related to model＇s capability in reproducing the observed dominant modes of the summer rainfall anomalies in Huaihe River basin. This result can be further ascribed to the fact that the predicted SST MME is the most effective model ensemble for capturing the relationship between the summer rainfall anomalies over Huaihe River basin and the SST anomalies （SSTAs） in equatorial oceans.