中文摘要：

本文以开放经济下的新凯恩斯宏观经济动态模型为理论依据，基于状态空间模型方法对我国潜在产出、自然利率以及均衡汇率在统一的框架下进行了定量估计，并进一步计算出相应的产出缺口、实际利率缺口与实际汇率缺口，以此作为参照指标对我国宏观经济波动态势、名义利率调整行为以及人民币汇率水平的合理性进行系列分析。分析表明，本文所得到的估计结果不仅是合理、可靠的，而且可以作为我国宏观经济波动态势判断、货币政策制定和效果评价的有用参考。

英文摘要：

This paper employed the state-space model to jointly estimate the potential output, natural rate of interest and equilibrium exchange rate in China. Based on output gap, gap of real interest rate and gap of real exchange rate calculated from this paper, we analyzed the business cycle, adjustment of interest rate and rationality of exchange rate in China. These analysis indicate that our estimation is not only rational and reliable, but also can be an useful reference for understanding of the business cycle and monetary policy formulation and evaluation in China.