中文摘要：

针对在航道整治工程中整治建筑物可靠度设计分析方法相对落后的现状，通过原型观测和水槽试验分析，将丁坝水毁近似看作由不同洪峰流量的洪水交替作用产生的结果，提出了三参数威布尔丁坝水毁可靠度分析模型，并在水毁体积等效的基础上，推导出受年际洪水交替作用后丁坝剩余寿命计算式．经过实测资料验证，该式具有较高的精度，能够计算出在遭受一定的洪水冲击作用后丁坝的剩余使用寿命，为整治工程设计和维护提供参考依据．

英文摘要：

Considering the unadvanced design and analysis of reliabifity of regulation structures at present, and based on prototype observation and flume experiments, the damage of the spur dike caused by water may be approximately regarded as the damage caused by alternate cyclic action of various flood peak discharge. On this basis, the failure probability of the spur dike can be described by the Weibull distribution model with three parameters. Based on the theory of equivalence volume, a formula for evaluating the residual life of the spur dike after the flood action is deduced. The analysis results show that the calculated results fit the real data well and can be used to calculate the residual life of the spur dike, which is a good reference to the project design and maintenance.