跨流域调水影响调水区产业结构的长期演化,根据协同学的理论,阐述了产业-用水系统演化协调的过程和规律,并指出产业-用水系统协调化的演化趋势是区域水资源条件发生变化时产业结构最终的趋于稳定状态的内部动力规律;利用哈肯模型建立了产业-用水系统的演化模型;给出了产业-用水系统演化模型推算跨流域调水对调水区产业结构发展影响的推算步骤.最后通过该模型定量分析了引大济湟工程对大通河流域产业结构的影响,得出了产业结构的演化结果.
Trans-basins water dispatch influence the long-term industries construct evolution of the area from which water resources are dispatched. Based on the synergetic theory, the towards-coordination evolution trend of industries-water usage system is the inner dynamic rule for the final stable state of industries construct when the water resources condition changes. The towards-coordination evolution process and rule of industries-water usage system are exposed and the evolution model of industries-water usage system is established based on Hakan model. The procedure of calculating influence for industries construct evolution are given. Finally, the influence of industries construct evolution of Datong basin made by Drain-Datong to Huang project is analyzed and the final outcome of industries construct evolution is obtained.