从行为动力学角度探讨物流基地产品出库量的时序特征。首先基于重标极差法,以某大规模物流基地产品的出库量为例,揭示物流基地各个仓库的钢材产品出库量具有分形布朗运动的基本特征。物流系统出库量不仅受到当前市场价格的引导,而且受过去一段时间的出库量影响较大。由于在区间重构过程中采用极差的方式会造成部分信息的缺失,继而采用复杂网络可视图的方法对物流系统的分形特征进一步加以验证,发现基本所有的可视图均具有小世界、无标度特征。重标极差与复杂网络可视图方法均说明,物流基地产品的出库量并非随机游走过程,而具有内在规律性,出库量与过去出库量具有长程相关性。
This paper investigated the timing characteristics of warehouse-out products in a large-scale logistics base. First of all, it revealed that the amount steel products warehouse-out of each warehouse in a logistics base had basic characteristics of fraetal Brownian motion, by the rescaled range method and taking amount of warehouse-out products in a large-scale logistics base for example. Amount of warehouse-out logistics system not only guided by the current market price, but also greatly influ- enced by the warehouse-out quantity past of a period of time. Because range method used in the process of interval reconstruc- tion could lead to the lack of some information, it used the method of complex networks to verify the fractal characteristics of logistics system further, and found that all basic visible graph had the characteristics of small-world and scale-free. The res- ealed range method and visible graph method both explain that amount of warehouse-out products in a large-scale logistics base is not a random walk process, but has intrinsic regularity, and memory effect make amount of warehouse-out now and past to keeo certain trend.