基于中国知网中水资源优化配置定量研究的核心期刊和硕博论文视角,对文献的时间分布、来源分布、类型分布、内容分布和主题分布进行统计分析,多角度地揭示中国水资源优化配置定量研究发展的历程和特点;继而从政治经济学方法、生态学方法、规划与模糊数学方法、系统学方法、人工智能方法5个方面透视水资源优化配置定量研究方法的演变规律及发展趋势。分析表明,1987年以来,相关中国水资源优化配置定量研究的学术论文数量增长很快,质量和规范性有较大提高,研究队伍逐渐壮大,研究内容更加深入,学科交叉更加广泛;方法体系由单调走向智能,但有过分依赖模型的趋势;评价体系多元化、综合化,但评价指标及其权值有待深入研究。学科交叉、方法融合、“3S”技术以及各种优化算法和软件的发展将促进水资源优化配置定量研究的深度发展和日益完善。
In order to obtain a basic outline of the development of quantitative studies of water resource allocation, journal articles from Chinese HowNet (CNKI) were reviewed. First, core journals, Master's and doctoral dissertations about quantitative study on optimization allocation for water resources were downloaded from CNKI. Second, statistical analysis of these papers was done according to their publication time and type, literature source and content, and research topics. After that, methods from political economy, ecology, planning and fuzzy mathematics, systematics and artificial intelligence were used to obtain the evolution and development trend of the quantitative study on optimization allocation for water resources. The main solutions for the above five methods were game theory, ecological-economic-social development, planning-fuzzy mathematics, decomposition and coordination theory of large-scale system and genetic algorithms. Crossover, fusion and penetration between the five methods increased the depth and breadth of the optimization allocation study of water resources. There were more paper counts, better quality and standardization, more research teams, more in-depth content and more extensive cross-disciplines in recent years. Content and model of water resources allocation were used monotonously to comprehensively. Technology of water resources allocation was employed traditionally to intelligently. Diverse and integrated evaluation methods for allocation results were employed. Multi-source, multi-dimensional, multi-type, multi-angle and multi-content study methods reflect the complex and interdisciplinary characteristics of water resources allocation. The most cutting-edge theories and methods from various disciplines were used for optimization allocation study for water resources. These theories and methods not only provided reasonable solutions to a variety of complex issues that exist in water resources allocation, but also enriched the theory of optimization allocation for water resources.