中文摘要：

利用逐步回归分析建立了刚察县耕地利用变化的驱动力模型，并利用多元统计分析中的通经分析、相关分析、偏相关分析和系统动力学的方法考察了影响耕地变化的驱动力在不同作用状况下的耕地变化情况，从县域规模水平上对土地利用变化的驱动因子及其作用机理和过程进行了分析，目的是为了揭示耕地利用变化的驱动机制，探讨区域土地资源可持续利用对策和措施。

英文摘要：

The driving force model of land use change in Gangcha County,Qinghai Province was established by using stepwise regression analysis method. The influences and mechanisms of the factors of driving force in the model were analyzed statistically by path analysis ,correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis, and systerm dynamics ,to reveal the driving mechanisms of the land use change, and to probe the countermeasures for the sustainable use of land resource at the county level.