中文摘要：

在分析我国能源比价扭曲对能耗强度影响效应的基础上，建立了Bayesian时变动态回归模型，测算了能源价格变动对能耗的影响效果及变动趋势。主要结论为：①能源比价关系的调整比单种能源价格的国际接轨更为重要。相比国际市场的能源比价结构，中国能源商品价格结构的扭曲度提高了中国的能耗强度，促进了第二产业的增长。②能源价格的变动对单位GDP能耗的影响效应具有显著的时变特征。在电力、煤炭、石油兰种能源中，电力价格的变动对能耗强度的影响最大。电力价格变化对单位GDP能耗的影响边际效应在逐年下降。但节能的效果仍很显著。煤电价格联动制约及“从羹计征”的资源税偏低使得煤炭价格的上涨反而加大了能耗强度。且1996年以来煤炭价格的提高对单位GDP能耗上升的影响效应还在不断加强，原油价格的提高对单位GDP能耗的影响在不同的时间段有不同的作用，但相对煤炭及电力价格来说，石油价格的影响效应最小。2002年以前石油价格的上升对能耗的上升起助推作用。2003年后石油价格的上升对能耗的上升起降低作用且强度逐年加大。

英文摘要：

On the basis of the unreasonable price structure of energy in China, we explore the distortion of different energy prices and establish a Bayesian dynamic time-varying regression model,with which we analyze the effects and the trend of energy price changes on energy intensity. The main conclusions are： （1）adjusting the relative prices of different types of energy is the most important pricing mechanism when cutting down the energy intensity. Compared with the international market ,the structure price distortions for different energy types in China increased China＇s energy intensity, and promote the growth of the second industry. （2）The effect of energy price changes on energy intensity has a significant time-varying characteristic. Among the three kinds of energy-electric power, coal and oil, the change of electric price has the biggest influence on energy intensity. The marginal effect of electricity price change on energy intensity has been falling, but is still significant. The government mechanism restricts the coal-electricity price linkage; Low resource tax of ＇specific duties＇ makes coal prices increase the energy intensity ,and this effect has been strengthening ceaselessly since 1996. The influence of the increase of crude oil price on energy intensity plays different roles in different time period ,but compared to the coal and electricity, the influence of petroleum price is the smallest. Before the year 2002, the rise in oil price promotes the rise of the energy consumption. After 2003, the rise in oil price exerts a negative role to the rise of energy consumption, and this has been strengthening year by year.