中文摘要：

利用1999年～2003年中国省际面板数据验证了耕地库兹涅茨曲线的存在，在经济增长初期，耕地非农化水平随经济增长逐渐增大，但当经济增长到一定的程度，耕地非农化水平随经济增长会逐渐减小，即随经济增长耕地非农化水平呈先增大后减小的倒“U”型变化趋势。土地市场化水平、产业结构变动以及国家政策对耕地非农化亦有影响，研究表明：①耕地非农化在人均GDP达到31468元（1999年不变价）时出现拐点，若经济以目前速度持续增长，预计2018年前后，“吃饭”与“建设”之间的矛盾将得到缓解；②借鉴环保观念和措施，建议加强耕地保护宣传，完善土管制度，建立三级目标体系，加大执法力度。

英文摘要：

Resource use and environmental management are crucial issues for sustainable development. The conversion of cultivated land to urban uses reflects patterns of economic and social development, and will affect China＇ s prospects for sustainable development. This paper analyzes the relationship between economic growth and cultivated land conversion in China using theoretical and econometric methods. The Kuznets Curve was first proposed in the 1950s to describe the relationship between a country＇s economic growth and per-capita income, and has more recently been used to investigate the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality. The rate of cultivated land conversion varies for different stages of economic growth, and is affected by several factors such as industrial structural transformation, land market characteristics, international trade and land protection policies. This paper uses provincial panel data with both time-series data and cross-sectional data to evaluate whether the Kuznets Curve holds true for economic growth and cultivated land conversion rates. Results show that the relationship between China＇s cultivated land conversion and economic growth is much like the Kuznets Curve, with the rate of cultivated land conversion first increasing and then declining with economic growth. If economic growth is maintained at the 1991 - 2004 growth rate of 9%, per-capita GDP will reach 31 468 RMB （in constant 1999 prices） by 2018, after which the rate of cultivated land conversion will slow. At this point, the conflict between food security and urban expansion should subside. If economic growth is slower, it will take longer to reach this point, but even with an economic growth rate of 4% the conflict between cultivated land conversion and economic growth would be alleviated in 2035. In addition to per-capita GDP, land market characteristics and the proportion of nonagricultural GDP are included in the model, to validate the effects of land market changes and industrial structure transf