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Energy Consumption, Economic Development and Temperature in China: Evidence from PSTR Model
  • 分类:TK018[动力工程及工程热物理] O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计;理学—数学]
  • 作者机构:[1]School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China, [2]School of Economics and Management, Tianjin University of Science and Technology, Tianjin 300457, China
  • 相关基金:The authors thank the reviewers for their careful reading and provid- ing some pertinent suggestions. The research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71073009 ), Chinese science and technology supporting program (No. 2012BAC20B08) and Tianjin City High School Science & Technology Fund Planning Project (No. 20130823).
中文摘要:

自从 1980 年代,中国经济很快发展了,与在 10% 附近的平均年度生长率。在中国的精力消费极大地也增加了。这份报纸由从 1990 ~ 2011 采用省的面板数据在中国调查在精力消费,经济开发和温度之间的关系。与存在研究不同在这份报纸,我们使用一块面板估计非线性关系的光滑的转变回归(PSTR ) 模型。包括二的四个不同阀值变量落后内长的变量和二个重要外长的变量被考虑了。我们发现那精力紧张和粗野大写的形成的比率对非线性模型合适。时间的估计的弹性动态显示那精力消费是无弹性的收入和温度无弹性。然而,真实收入的弹性起初增加然后减少温度的弹性逐渐地在一年 1993 以后增加。所有持续,我们建议一些政策含意。

英文摘要:

Since the 1980s, the Chinese economy has developed rapidly, with an av- erage annual growth rate around 10%. Energy consumption in China has greatly in- creased as well. This paper investigates the relationship between energy consumption, economic development and temperature in China by adopting provincial panel data from 1990 to 2011. Different from existing studies, in this paper, we use a panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model to estimate the non-linearity relationship. Four different threshold variables including two lagged endogenous variables and two important exogenous variables have been considered. We find that energy intensity and the ratio of gross capital formation are suitable for the non-linearity model. The estimated elasticities of time dynamic indicate that energy consumption is income in- elastic and temperature inelastic. Elasticities of real income at first increase and then decrease, however, elasticities of temperature gradually increase after the year 1993. Last of all, we propose some policy implications.

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