区域水安全评价可为区域安全管理提供重要的决策依据,其重要问题有如何建立合适的区域水安全评价指标体系和合理确定各评价指标的权重。根据中国水安全研究的特点和水安全问题的主要类型特征,提出了由水资源安全、水环境安全和水旱灾害防治安全三个子系统及其指标集组成的区域水安全评价指标体系。为有效挖掘区域水安全评价指标体系中主、客观评价信息,克服已被广泛应用的常规信息熵权法的不足,提出了用基于加速遗传算法的改进模糊层次分析法(AGA-FAHP)与熵权法相结合的方法确定各指标的客观权重,用最小相对熵原理综合各指标的客观权重和主观权重,用AGA-FAHP确定各子系统的权重,进而建立了区域水安全评价的新模型(EW—AGA-FAHP)。用EW-AGA-FAHP评价中国7个省级区域的水安全形势的结果表明:EW-AGA-FAHP的评价结果合理,方法可行、通用,在区域水安全管理中具有一定的应用价值。
The important decision-making reference can be given in managing region security through evaluation of region water security, the key problems are how to establish the right evaluation index system of region water security, and how to determine the weights of the evaluation indexes. Based on Chinese water security research behavior and water problems characteristic, a new evaluation index system of region water security is established, it is consisted of subsystems of water resource security, water environment security and water disaster control security. In order to mine the subjective and objective evaluation information of evaluation index values, and to improve the normal information entropy weight method, the accelerating genetic algorithm based fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AGA-FAHP) combined with entropy weight method is presented to compute the objective and subjective weights of evaluation indexes, the subjective and objective weights of evaluation indexes can be integrated based on principle of minimum relative information entropy, and the sub-system weights can be determined by using AGA-FAHP, accordingly a new method, named EW-AGA-FAHP, and established for region water security evaluation. The evaluated results of seven provincial water security in China show that the computation results of EW-AGA-FAHP are reasonable, its method is practical, so EW-AGA-FAHP can be widely applied in regional water security management.