中文摘要：

研究了在微博特定网络环境下,舆情形成机制中,个体用户在受到内外部众多因素的影响下,以一定作用机制和交互规则,转变对舆情事件所持态度的可能性,与转变态度所需时间、群体用户形成统一舆论观点（即舆情形成）所需时间之间的关系。通过对微博舆情作用规律在时间方面的探索,了解舆情形成的时间规律,有助于准确预测舆情形成时间,从而有效进行舆情监控,为企业进行网络舆情管理和网络危机公关活动提供理论依据。

英文摘要：

This paper mainly presents a dynamical model in crisis event that takes explicitly into accountthe structure of microblog in which individuals are embedded. To address the questions involving theeffect of social network, mechanism for attitude change and time the public needs to reach consensus,complex networks, social psychology theories of attitude change, and opinion dynamics, guide theapproach. The critical feature is the presence of social judgment theory in dynamical methodology, whichrepresents an alternative perspective for policy makers to predict the occurrence of crisis event.Experiments demonstrate that this method can be of significant in guiding and controlling the enterprisepublic opinion.