中文摘要：

为了评估苹果霜冻灾害特征,确定气候变暖对苹果霜冻灾害的影响机制,现基于绥中33年的苹果发育期数据和气温数据,结合物候模型的方法,分析了绥中苹果霜冻灾害发生特征及其对气候变暖的相应和不同品种的霜冻灾害发生的特点。结果表明：1981—2013年绥中苹果霜冻灾害发生概率为18.18%,春季气温升高可能导致苹果霜冻灾害加剧,通过调整苹果品种,可以较好的避免霜冻危害的发生。

英文摘要：

To assess apple frost disaster characteristics and determine the impact mechanism of climate warming on apple frost disaster,the phenological model method was used to analyze apple frost disaster characteristics and their corresponding to climate warming with apple phenology data and temperature data for 33 years in Suizhong.The results showed that the probability of apple frost disasters from 1981 to 2013in Suizhong was 18.18%.The spring temperatures raise could lead to occur easily for apple frost disaster.The adjustment of apple varieties could better avoid the happening of frost disaster.