通过对我国西部地区云南、广西、宁夏、甘肃四省(区)进行实地调研,利用描述统计和Logistic模型相结合的方法,对533户农户的退耕还林成果保持意愿影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:户主年龄、家庭耕地面积、工程补偿标准满意程度、工程对生活质量影响程度、工程中村干部的作用对农户保持退耕还林成果意愿影响最为显著。并据此提出促进退耕还林工程可持续发展的相关政策建议。
The Conversion of Cropland to Foresdand Program(CCFP) is one of the five forestry ecological pro- gram in western China which has great significance for ecological construction and economic sustainable develop- ment. In this paper, using the Logistic Regression Model combined with descriptive statistic, analyzes the willing- ness of maintaining program effect of 533 firmer households generated from the investigation held in Ynnnan, Guangxi, Ningxia and Ganst~ Province. The result shows that: farmers' age, land scale, satisfaction degree about the compensation standard, program' s influential degree to the life quality, the role of the village cadres are the most significant factors. Then this paper puts forward correlation suggestions to promote the sustainable develop- ment of the Conversion of Cropland to Forestland Program.