中文摘要：

气候变化影响的研究成果在水工程设计和水资源规划管理中的直接应用和推广面临不确定性问题的挑战。本文以汉江上游流域为例,对比分析了气候变化对河川径流影响的研究成果,指出没有考虑气候变化对流域下垫面条件的影响是导致径流量预测存在不确定性的主要因素之一。根据气候变化对径流量影响的研究成果,采用扣损失法计算汉江上游流域的地表水资源可利用量,通过对比分析发现,由于没有考虑气候变化对生态需水、汛期洪水等因素的影响,使得气候变化对地表水资源可利用量影响的评价也存在较大的不确定性。因此,针对主要涉及的气候要素模拟的可靠性,以及对径流影响因素和相关规划要素对气候变化的响应进行全面评价,是水工程设计和水资源规划管理中应用气候变化研究成果的重要保障。

英文摘要：

Currently, the elements of the water cycle, such as temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and streamflow, are the major factors incorporated in studies on the climate change impacts on water resources. Other factors that are directly used in the design of water engineering and the planning of water resources development and management, such as water availability, water supplies and demands, are rarely considered, although they are also sensitive to climate change. To this end, the application of climate change results to the design of water engineering and the planning of water resources development and management is facing the challenge of uncertainty. Taking the upstream watershed in the Hanjiang basin as an example, two results as to the impact of climate change on streamflow were compared and analyzed in detail. The two schemes that utilized different GCMs and hydrologic models, the statistic downscaling methods and the weather generator were applied to couple the GCMs and the hydrologic models. There existed obvious differences in the two results. It was revealed that one of the sources of uncertainty in the prediction of streamflow is that the impact of climate change on the underlying conditions in watersheds has not yet been considered in hydrologic modeling. Based on the predicted streamflow in the upstream watershed in the Hanjiang basin, the availability of surface water resources is evaluated by means of the losing deduction. It was also found that there were pronounced uncertainties associated with the evaluation of the availability of surface water resources because the impact of climate change on the key variables that should be calculated in the losing deduction method, such as ecological water demands and high flow during flooding season, were not considered. The total uncertainties caused by the coupling of the impacts of climate change on streamflow and on the ecological water demands as well as the high flow during flooding season, significantly reduced the reliability of the evaluati